Mexico with a darker picture Buenos Aires, Argentina on January 28, 2009 when earlier this year the Minister of Finance of Mexico, Agustin Carstens stated that its forecast of growth of the Mexican economy for the current year was zero, few imagined that it was an optimistic prognosis. Like what is observed in the majority of economies, Mexico is no exception, and each new data or economic projection that spreads, turns out to be more pessimistic than the previous. Yesterday the Bank of Mexico unveiled its macroeconomic projections in which stands a projection of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), negative of between 0.8% and 1.8%. For the Banxico, Mexico cannot prevent economic recession. The fall in the Mexican GDP won’t be free, but it will have a significant impact on the level of employment.
In this international recessive context, the Central Bank also predicted that in 2009 will be lost in Mexico between 160,000 and 340,000 jobs. The decline in the projected growth for this year responds to continuity of the weakening of domestic demand (specifically, consumption and private investment), both external demand. In this latest deterioration is reflected in the outcome of trade balance. The deficit in the trade balance in Mexico during 2008 increased by 50.4% to reach US $16.838 million. The same turns out to be the largest deficit since 1995. The fall in the price of petroleum products during the latter part of the year, has significantly influenced this deficit. To make matters worse, the prospects for the price of oil for this year aren’t all positive, which joins an expected weak demand in the rest of the goods and services exported by Mexico. If the deterioration in the trade balance implies a lower net supply of dollars in the Mexican exchange market, it has been reduced even further with the fall in remittances.